Before even taking the oath of office, President-elect Donald Trump is already redefining the federal workforce. His administration isn't offering promises of growth -- instead, it's preparing a sweeping overhaul designed to push federal employees toward the exit.
The incoming Trump administration wants significant reductions to the 2.3 million-strong civilian federal workforce through layoffs, agency eliminations and office relocations. The administration hopes for voluntary departures, likely encouraged by return-to-office (RTO) mandates.
Legal and employment experts warn that these strategies risk driving away some of the government's most skilled employees and potentially hindering recruitment efforts.
[The incoming administration] looks at the federal workforce with a certain antipathy.
George ChuziEmployment attorney, Kalijarvi, Chuzi, Newman & Fitch
The incoming administration "looks at the federal workforce with a certain antipathy," said George Chuzi, an employment attorney at Kalijarvi, Chuzi, Newman & Fitch. He said they see federal workers as "unnecessary in many instances, hostile to the administration's goals and expensive."
"What would you be thinking?" Chuzi said of federal workers. "[That] you have to get out before you're fired."
Experts fear that the administration might lose the workers it needs most.
Rush to the exits
"Brain drain is a real risk here," said Brian Elliott, CEO of Work Forward, an advisory firm for senior leaders. The employees the administration would task with modernizing services are "the ones that end up going off someplace else," he said.
Two key advisers -- Elon Musk, founder and head of Tesla and SpaceX, and Vivek Ramaswamy, an entrepreneur who sought the GOP presidential nomination -- have outlined the Trump administration's workforce reduction plans. Through the so-called Department of Government Efficiency, they propose cutting the workforce by as much as half. In a recent Wall Street Journalop-ed, they argued that "requiring federal employees to come to the office five days a week would result in a wave of voluntary terminations that we welcome."
A recent academic study tracked employment trends among more than 3 million tech and finance workers using LinkedIn data. Researchers from the University of Pittsburgh, Cheung Kong Graduate School of Business in Beijing, Baylor University and the Chinese University of Hong Kong found that RTO mandates led to higher turnover rates, particularly among skilled employees, even in sectors with significantly higher pay than federal agencies.
Expertise is at risk
Mark Ma, a business administration professor at the University of Pittsburgh and co-author of the study, said RTO mandates in private companies cause high turnover despite better pay. Federal employees with valuable skills, such as scientists at the U.S. Food and Drug Administration or prosecutors at the Department of Justice, could be especially vulnerable.
"Clearly, financial and medical regulations will be weakened," Ma said, adding that the effects would extend to defense.
Ma noted that modern warfare relies heavily on cyberspace, creating a need for employees with AI and cybersecurity skills. "These people could also leave for higher-paid positions at big tech companies," he said.
The challenge of maintaining federal operations during workforce reductions is already evident. Social Security, for example, faces mounting pressures.
Agencies already short-staffed
Days before resigning last month, former Social Security Administration Commissioner Martin O'Malley told lawmakers that the agency faces record customer demand with one of the lowest staffing levels in 50 years -- about 60,000 workers -- and lacks funding to modernize its technology. Of that workforce, only 1.3% is entirely remote.
"The customer service that Americans have already paid for has been allowed to decline to crisis-level lows," O'Malley told the House Oversight Committee.
The Trump administration is expected to implement Schedule F, which would remove many civil service protections for employees at pay grade GS-13 with a starting salary of about $90,000 and above, including managers, policymakers and scientists.
Trump enacted Schedule F before the 2020 election, but President Joe Biden revoked it when he came into office. Many experts expect legal challenges, as well as pushback in Congress, over potential agency consolidations and closings. Trump will also face opposition from labor unions, some of which have negotiated telework protections into their contracts.
Apart from layoffs, the administration also plans to move more jobs out of Washington, which could also trigger a rush to the exits.
The BLM relocation failure
During Trump's first term, the Bureau of Land Management headquarters moved to Colorado. Of the 176 employees required to relocate, 135 declined reassignment or left their positions, according to a Government Accountability Office report. In 2021, the Biden administration returned the headquarters to Washington, but kept a Western office in that state.
Eric Brown, founder and CEO of Imperio Consulting, a leadership and team development firm, experienced a government relocation as a Green Beret in the U.S. Army. His Special Forces group moved from Fort Bragg, N.C., to Florida, which also affected civilian employees.
"We did lose people," Brown said, but those committed to staying did stay. Some employees who initially resisted relocation had a change of heart and "were fighting to get to Florida," he added.
Brown said transparency and clear communication will be key to any government downsizing to avoid confusion and unrest among employees concerned about potential relocations or job losses.
Patrick Thibodeau is an editor at large for TechTarget Editorial who covers HCM and ERP technologies. He's worked for more than two decades as an enterprise IT reporter.
