Two major occupational categories in high-tech sectors were the most significant contributors to an 818,000-job overestimation in U.S. employment data, according to new government figures.
The government's broad information industry category -- including software developers, data analysts, and people in media and film, among other occupations -- was the most affected, showing a 2.3% decrease, equivalent to 68,000 jobs lost. According to the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics data released Friday, the professional and business services sector experienced the largest absolute decline, with a loss of 358,000 jobs, or 1.6% of the previous estimate.
These two categories, representing more than half of the overall downward revision, are significant employers in high-tech fields, including computer system designers, data scientists and other technology-related positions.
However, more detailed information is needed to get a precise picture, as the government's revision does not specify the occupations affected by the change.
"There will be some impact at the tech sector level, given the revision to the professional services category," said Tim Herbert, chief research officer at CompTIA, an industry group. "But it is unclear yet how much detail is available on the types of occupations that were revised downward." He added that, besides tech jobs, the revision might include roles in sales, marketing, administration and other nontech occupations.
Doesn't include latest cuts
The government's revision reflects cumulative adjustments to job growth estimates from March 2023 to March 2024. The period means the data does not include recent cuts, such as Cisco's reduction of over 6,000 jobs, UKG's 2,000 cuts, the layoff of more than 1,000 employees in General Motors' software and services division -- first reported by CNBC -- and Dell's layoff.
Victor Janulaitis, CEO of Janco Associates, a labor market research firm, estimates that unemployment in IT occupations is close to 6%, if not higher. The overall unemployment rate across all occupations stands at 4.3%.
Job prospects for IT pros are grim at best, unless they have AI or machine learning experience.
Victor JanulaitisCEO, Janco Associates
"Job prospects for IT pros are grim at best, unless they have AI or machine learning experience," Janulaitis said.
The government also released county-level employment data Friday, which could provide additional clues into the high-tech job market.
For example, overall employment in San Francisco across all occupations declined by 2.1% from March 2023 to March 2024. Despite this, average weekly wages in the area increased by 9.2%. In Silicon Valley's Santa Clara County, wages rose by 14.6%.
Janulaitis noted that the San Francisco data suggests many entry- and mid-level IT jobs have left the Bay Area. "What is left are positions for higher-level IT professionals who can afford to live in the Bay Area," he said.
Patrick Thibodeau is an editor at large for TechTarget Editorial who covers HCM and ERP technologies. He's worked for more than two decades as an enterprise IT reporter.
