The state of quantum computing: What businesses need to know
Quantum computing's potential and steady advancement make the technology worth investigating, but adopters still need to deal with conflicting claims and uncertain market timing.
The state of quantum computing is challenging to pin down. The emerging technology is subject to shifting claims, uncertain timing and a fragmented technology landscape.
Consider the following:
Jensen Huang, CEO of Nvidia, stated in January that useful quantum computing could be 15 or more years away -- prompting a sell-off in quantum vendor stocks. In March, Huang backed away from his earlier prediction during Nvidia's first "quantum day."
Microsoft unveiled its Majorana 1 quantum processing unit in February. The chip is based on topological superconductivity, which Microsoft described as a new state of matter. The technology could advance the field, dealing with sticky challenges such as quantum error correction. But some physicists voiced skepticism.
Quantum computing analysts and technology executives offer differing timelines for quantum computing's arrival as a decisive improvement over classical computing.
Potential customers must consider half a dozen types of quantum computing. More options are in development, including the topological variety.
It's a lot to think about for business and technology leaders who would probably prefer more predictability. But decision-makers should resist the temptation to wait on the sidelines. There are compelling reasons to start investigating the technology.
Quantum computing might warrant investigation as the technology edges toward quantum advantage.
Quantum computing market outlook and projections
Quantum computing's steady improvement argues for taking a closer look. Technology providers are moving toward the goal of quantum advantage, the point at which businesses will begin to benefit from using quantum computing instead of traditional IT for certain applications.
Industry experts define quantum advantage in different ways. One yardstick, quantum economic advantage, considers cost and speed. The Quantum Economic Advantage Calculator, provided online by MIT and Accenture, defines the term as a quantum machine's ability to solve a particular problem faster than a similarly priced classical computer.
Others view quantum advantage through the lens of computational power: being able to perform a task that couldn't be accomplished on a classical machine within any practical time frame. The general idea is being able to run a quantum algorithm on a quantum computer that surpasses, in some manner, what a traditional computer can do.
Quantum computing's steady improvement argues for taking a closer look.
Projections as to the actual timing of quantum advantage vary by market observer. But those estimates, collectively, suggest that quantum advantage will emerge in the 2025-2030 time frame.
Businesses could benefit from taking quantum action before the technology becomes mainstream. Boston Consulting Group (BCG) estimated that as much as 90% of the value created via quantum computing will go to early adopters. And the potential value is considerable: BCG estimated that quantum computing will generate $450 billion to $850 billion in operating income for end-user organizations by 2040.
Learning about the technology now and exploring potential use cases will prepare organizations for adoption. Generative AI's emergence in late 2022 showed how abrupt technological advancement can be. The takeaway: Get acquainted with quantum now to avoid surprises later.
The promised business applications of quantum computing
Quantum computing will eventually affect several industries and business applications within those sectors. In general, businesses stand to gain from higher speed and greater accuracy as they tackle complex problems. The upshot is "significant competitive advantage," according to a 2025 report "Embracing the Quantum Economy: A Pathway for Business Leaders," prepared by the World Economic Forum in collaboration with Accenture.
In addition to gaining a competitive edge, early adopters can also take advantage of the technology's "potential to revolutionize industries," the report noted.
A sampling of industries and quantum computing use cases.
The industries likely to benefit from quantum computing's potential include chemicals, energy, financial services, government and defense, healthcare and life sciences and transportation. Potential applications include molecular simulation, expected to play a role in the chemicals and healthcare and life sciences sectors; portfolio optimization and risk assessment in financial services; and route optimization in transportation.
But quantum computing's emergence as the preferred computing choice across those industries and applications won't happen all at once. Quantum advantage, however it's measured, will surface at different times for different use cases. For example, chemistry simulation could be among the earliest breakthroughs, with companies such as Google, IBM and Microsoft focusing on that area. IBM believes it's getting closer to quantum advantage, perhaps within a year or two, citing experiments in chemistry as pointing in that direction.
Barriers to quantum computing's growth
Several factors, however, could delay the onset of quantum advantage and the broad adoption of quantum computing for applicable problems.
Dealing with errors in quantum computation is an ongoing challenge that could hinder adoption. Quantum states such as superposition, a principle of quantum mechanics that enables quantum computing, are fragile and susceptible to environmental conditions. Quantum noise -- vibration, temperature variability and electromagnetic interference, for example -- introduces errors.
Technology providers are, however, making strides in error suppression and error mitigation, which aim to reduce errors and lessen their effects. Continued progress in those techniques -- and in the additional technique of quantum error correction -- will help determine the commercial viability of quantum computing.
A lack of trained experts in quantum computing and the need for specialized manufacturing processes could also slow the arrival of quantum advantage. The availability of funding to support quantum computing's advancement is another important variable. Seasons of reduced funding and slower development -- so called AI winters -- stymied artificial intelligence during its evolution.
Who is currently investing in quantum technology?
The public sector contributes much of the funding for quantum computing. A 2024 McKinsey & Co. report estimated governments around the world had announced $42 billion in quantum technology investment as of 2023. Most of the national government initiatives "aim to establish technological leadership and sovereignty and spur private investments for quantum technology development," according to the company's "Quantum Technology Monitor" report.
McKinsey, meanwhile, estimated private investment in quantum technology startup companies at $1.71 billion in 2023.
Recent public and private investments include the following:
The U.S. Air Force Research Laboratory awarded a $54.5 million contract to IonQ, which manufactures quantum computers.
Venture capital firm GP Bullhound anchored the expansion of Q-CTRL's Series B funding round to $113 million. Q-CTRL makes quantum computing infrastructure software.
JPMorgan Chase led a $300 million investment in Quantinuum, partnering with the quantum hardware and software company on quantum computing research.
What is the current development status of quantum technology?
At the moment, a couple dozen vendors manufacture quantum computers, while numerous specialty developers provide software for quantum machines.
On the hardware side, quantum computers are based on quantum bits, or qubits, which are the elementary building blocks for quantum computations. Vendors use different types of superconducting materials, atoms or subatomic particles to create qubits. As a result, several types -- or modalities -- of quantum computers are available. Those include annealing, superconducting, trapped ion, neutral atom, photonic and quantum dots.
Adopters can investigate at least six types of quantum computing.
In addition, other types of quantum computing are in earlier stages of development. Microsoft's Majorana 1 quantum processing unit, for instance, represents the emerging topological qubit modality.
The main customers for on-premises quantum computers are research and academic institutions and government agencies. Such installations typically cost upwards of $10 million. Cloud services, however, offer wider access to expensive hardware. Hypescalers such as AWS, Google and Microsoft Azure provide cloud-based access as do many of the quantum hardware makers.
How should business leaders prepare for quantum computing?
This type of computing is now at a point where business leaders can start preparing for a quantum future. Here are a few steps to get started:
Consider security. Businesses should examine how quantum technology could be used against them before exploring how they can use it. Threat actors are expected at some point to harness quantum computers to break data-protecting cryptographic standards. Organizations should assess their inventory of cryptographic algorithms as they prepare for post-quantum cryptography.
Look into cloud access. The multi-million-dollar expense of an in-house deployment, not to mention the ongoing cost of maintaining an installation, will likely prove beyond the grasp of most businesses. Cloud access, however, provides a pay-as-you-go avenue for gaining experience with the technology. It also lets organizations investigate multiple flavors of quantum computing without committing to any of them.
Partner with an ecosystem. Quantum ecosystems, more than 20 of which have surfaced worldwide, bring together government agencies, academic institutions and technology vendors. These innovation hubs, which aim to promote quantum computing's development, typically include industry partners. Working with an ecosystem can help a business expand its quantum knowledge and provide access to limited quantum computing resources.
Adopters should consider partnering with a quantum ecosystem for tech access.
Identify pilot projects. Businesses with a grounding in quantum computing can cultivate small-scale pilots to get more hands-on-experience with the technology, exploring its benefits and learning about potential barriers.
John Moore is a writer for Informa TechTarget covering the CIO role, economic trends and the IT services industry.
