AAMC Predicts Physician Shortage to Hit Between 54K to 139K by 2033

Demand for doctors continues to exceed supply, leading to a projected physician shortage of between 54,100 and 139,000 physicians by 2033 — a higher range compared to the previous projected shortage through 2032 of 46,900 and 121,900 physicians, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) recently reported.

Released late last week, the updated projections modeled nearly 29,000 newly trained physicians entering the workforce each year, as well as the continued growth in the number of advanced practice registered nurses (APRNs) and physicians’ assistants (PAs).

But these numbers will not be enough to meet the demand for care from a growing and aging population, AAMC stated.

“This annual analysis continues to show that our country will face a significant shortage of physicians in the coming years,” said David J. Skorton, MD, AAMC president and CEO. “The gap between the country’s increasing health care demands and the supply of doctors to adequately respond has become more evident as we continue to combat the COVID-19 pandemic.”

The latest physician shortage prediction was modeled prior to the COVID-19 pandemic. But AAMC acknowledged that the unprecedented public health emergency will have short- and long-term implications for the supply and demand of doctors, including educational pipeline issues (e.g., interruption of education, cancellation of clinical rotations, changes in curriculum), regulatory issues (e.g., changes in licensure and reimbursement), and workforce exits (due to death from COVID-19, early burnout-induced retirement or postponed retirement due to the economy).

“As our health care system continues to treat patients during the COVID-19 pandemic, the need for a strong and sufficient health care workforce is more apparent than ever. Specialty physician shortages, especially those that are hospital-based, including critical care, emergency medicine, and pulmonary specialists, are particularly urgent,” Skorton said.

The specialty physician shortage is now slated to hit between 33,700 and 86,700 physicians by 2033, AAMC estimated. More specifically, shortages are projected to be between 17,100 and 28,700 physicians for surgical specialties and between 9,300 and 17,800 physicians for medical specialties.

Other specialties (i.e., pathology, radiology, psychiatry) are projected to see a shortage between 17,100 and 41,900 physicians.

Primary care will also face a physician shortage, though not as large compared to specialties, AAMC stated. The association estimated that the primary care physician shortage will range between 21,400 and 55,200 physicians by 2033.

While COVID-19 will certainly impact these numbers in future reports, AAMC stressed that population growth and aging continue to be the driving factor behind worsening physician shortages.

From 2018 to 2033, the US population is projected to increase by 10.4 percent from about 327 million people to 361 million people, AAMC reported. Of that population, the group under 18 years old is only slated to increase by 3.9 percent, while the group aged 65 years and older is projected to increase by 45.1 percent. And if population health management strategies are effective, the older population is likely to live longer, resulting in greater demand for physician services in the long run, AAMC pointed out.

The aging population also leads to a large number of retiring physicians. More than two in five physicians who are currently practicing medicine will be 65 years or older within the next decade, AAMC found.

This year’s report also used new physician work-hours and retirement intentions data from the AAMC 2019 National Sample Survey of Physicians. The survey found that physicians intend to retire earlier than was assumed in previous supply projections.

COVID-19 could change physician responses though by prompting more physicians to retire earlier due to burnout, declining revenues, and other COVID-19 stresses. Conversely, the COVID-19 recession could spur some older physicians to stay in the workforce until the economy improves.

Either way, AAMC stressed that policymakers need to address the physician shortage to ensure care access, especially as efforts around population health management and improvements to care access for vulnerable populations succeed.

“The pandemic has shown the importance of investing in a strong health care infrastructure,” Skorton said. “To ensure access to care, one essential step Congress must take is to ensure an adequate physician workforce by ending the freeze on federal funding for graduate medical education that has been in place since 1997 that limits federal support for training new physicians.”

Policymakers and healthcare stakeholders will also need to ensure APRNs and PAs are able to fill gaps left by an inadequate supply of physicians. These provider workforces have already experienced tremendous growth in the last couple of years, and AAMC projected the supply of the providers to more than double over the next 15 years, with APRN supply slated to grow by 276,000 FTEs and PA supply by nearly 138,000 FTEs.

“[O]ur partners in health care, especially nurse practitioners and physician assistants, also have critical roles to play in what must be a multipronged solution to increase access to care and ensure our nation is prepared to adequately respond to public health needs and emergencies in the future,” Skorton stated.