Physician Recruitment Drops, Number of Medical Residents Rises

A new survey by Merritt Hawkins reveals that new physician recruitment rates are falling. In 2020, 62 percent of final-year residents received 26 or more recruiting offers, dropping from 82 percent in 2019, the survey revealed.

However, the number of medical residents in the US increased by almost 5,000, a hopeful sign for the future of the health care workforce amid a physician shortage.

The survey evaluated the impact of COVID-19 on final-year medical residents, along with addressing physician burnout, salary expectations, and the physician shortage. It is important to note that the survey only received 103 responses and is meant to be interpreted as a “pulse” survey that may not necessarily reflect the larger population of residents, but can still be used as a non-scientific indicator of trends.

Despite the 20-percentage point drop from 2019 in residents receiving 26 or more recruiting offers, 86 percent of residents reported receiving 11 or more offers. This could imply that there are in fact enough jobs to meet the demand for medical residents, despite the overall physician shortage.

“The underlying dynamics driving the physician shortage, including an aging population and an aging physician workforce, have not changed and it is likely residents completing their training will be in high demand for the foreseeable future,” the survey results explained.

Meanwhile, the Association of American Medical Colleges (AAMC) predicts a shortage of up to 139,000 physicians by 2033, despite increasing medical school enrollment, crediting the Congress’ cap on graduate medical education (GME).

The 1997 cap on GME was lifted in 2020, freeing up an additional 1,000 residency positions. But AAMC advocates for an additional 15,000 residencies over a five-year period to combat the physician shortage. With the recent uptick in medical residents, there could be a shortage of open positions in the near future.

In addition to recruitment rates falling, there has been a rise in reported physician burnout in recent years. This could explain why survey respondents said they value lifestyle factors above most other concerns. Sufficient personal time was considered the most important factor by 73 percent of surveyed residents. In addition, 58 percent reported often or always experiencing feelings of burnout.

“Other factors, such as proximity to family, specialty support and malpractice rates are considered important to somewhat important by many residents, but do not rate as highly as location, financials, personal time and lifestyle considerations,” the survey reported.

Despite a difficult year for health care in 2020, “only 3 [percent] agreed that COVID-19 had caused them to rethink their choice of a career, while 49 [percent] strongly disagreed,” the survey stated. The survey found that COVID-19 was not a primary concern for most residents. The majority (55 percent) also reported that they are not concerned by the health risks they are exposed to from COVID-19.

However, 21 percent of respondents said they “would not choose medicine again if they had their education and training to do over,” the survey reports.

In addition to observations about physician recruitment and the healthcare workforce, the study also noted that only three percent of respondents would prefer to live in a community with less than 25,000 people. None of the respondents said they would prefer to live in a community with less than 10,000 people, showing that the physician shortage in rural areas is likely to persist.

Even though female residents appear to receive more recruiting offers, 38 percent of female study respondents expect to earn $250,000 or more, compared to 76 percent of males. While 83 percent of surgical specialists expect to earn $301,000 or more as a starting salary, only 13 percent of primary care physicians expect the same. This could be due to the fact that primary care was hit hard by COVID-19, with billions in losses in 2020.

Although most final-year medical residents are still receiving several recruitment solicitations, the downward trend in the number of offers points to uncertainty for the future of the healthcare workforce.