900K Registered Nurses Expected to Leave Workforce by 2027

After losing 100,000 registered nurses during the COVID-19 pandemic, the nursing workforce is expected to lose an additional 900,000 workers by 2027, according to research from the National Council of State Boards of Nursing (NCSBN).

The research was presented in a panel discussion and examined a subset of the 2022 National Nursing Workforce Study from NCSBN and the National Forum of State Nursing Workforce Centers. The analysis included 29,472 registered nurses and 24,061 licensed practical nurses/vocational nurses across 45 states.

The study found that around 100,000 registered nurses left the healthcare workforce in the past two years, primarily due to stress, burnout, and retirement. More than 610,000 registered nurses said they intend to leave the workforce by 2027 due to these reasons. An additional 188,962 nurses younger than 40 years old said the same.

These figures indicate that almost 900,000, or one-fifth of the nation’s 4.5 million registered nurses, are projected to leave the healthcare workforce in the next four years.

“The data is clear: the future of nursing and of the US health care ecosystem is at an urgent crossroads,” Maryann Alexander, PhD, RN, FAAN, chief officer of nursing regulation at NCSBN, said in the press release.

“The pandemic has stressed nurses to leave the workforce and has expedited an intent to leave in the near future, which will become a greater crisis and threaten patient populations if solutions are not enacted immediately. There is an urgent opportunity today for health care systems, policymakers, regulators, and academic leaders to coalesce and enact solutions that will spur positive systemic evolution to address these challenges and maximize patient protection in care into the future.”

The pandemic exacerbated staffing challenges in all healthcare sectors as physical and emotional stressors were heightened.

Over six in ten nurses reported increased workloads during the pandemic. Additionally, nurses reported feeling used up (56.4 percent), emotionally drained (50.8 percent), fatigued (49.7 percent), burned out (45.1 percent), or at the end of the rope (29.4 percent) a few times a week or every day.

Nurses with ten or fewer years of experience faced these issues the most and accounted for a 3.3 percent decline in the nursing workforce during the past two years.

Almost 34,000 licensed practical/vocational nurses have left the workforce since the pandemic hit, and experts predict the shortage will continue. These nurses typically work in long-term care settings providing care for vulnerable populations, the research noted.

High turnover levels in the nursing sector are expected to continue, and prelicensure nursing programs have raised concerns about the supply and clinical preparedness of nursing graduates. Data on incoming nurses has shown decreased practice and assessment proficiency, NCSBN said.

A report from NSI Nursing Solutions, Inc. found that the registered nurse workforce gained 142,000 workers back in 2022. Turnover increased by 8.4 percent in 2021 before falling by 4.6 percent to 22.5 percent in 2022.

Despite the lower turnover rate, hospitals still experienced financial repercussions. The average cost of a turnover for a registered nurse is $52,350, meaning that the average hospital lost $8.55 million in 2022 due to the 22.5 percent turnover rate.