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Modeling Study Predicts Drastic Rise in Diabetes for Young Americans
Researchers project that the prevalence of youths with diabetes will increase rapidly in the next several decades, emphasizing the need for better prevention and health equity.
A study published in Diabetes Care last week found that the incidence of type 1 and type 2 diabetes in people younger than 20 is likely to increase significantly by 2060. Based on data from the SEARCH for Diabetes in Youth database, researchers estimate that type 2 diabetes diagnoses may increase by 673% while type 1 diabetes diagnoses may increase by 69%.
The study’s leaders used observed incidence from 2002 through 2017 to estimate the growth in cases each year, showing that without immediate prevention efforts, diabetes cases will substantially increase in future decades. The study also found that the burden of type 2 diabetes will be higher for Black, Hispanic/Latino, Asian, Pacific Islander, and American Indian/Alaska Native Youth.
“Increases in diabetes — especially among young people — are always worrisome, but these numbers are alarming,” included Christopher Holliday, PhD, MPH, MA, FACHE, director of CDC’s Division of Diabetes Translation in a press release. “This study’s startling projections of type 2 diabetes increases show why it is crucial to advance health equity and reduce the widespread disparities that already take a toll on people’s health.”
In the release, CDC officials also speculated that the increased prevalence of type 2 diabetes could be due to the rising incidence of childhood obesity and the presence of diabetes in people of childbearing age.
Regardless, the surge in childhood diabetes poses a serious threat to public health, putting more Americans at risk of heart disease, stroke, and premature death.
“This new research should serve as a wake-up call for all of us,” emphasized the CDC’s Acting Principal Deputy Director, Debra Houry, MD, MPH. “It’s vital that we focus our efforts to ensure all Americans, especially our young people, are the healthiest they can be.”
The CDC estimates that 37 million Americans have diabetes and that at least 90% of cases are type 2 diabetes. Previously, it was less common for people under 45 to develop diabetes, but recent studies have shown that the rate of adolescents and young adults with type 2 diabetes is rising. One such piece of research found that between 1990 and 2019, there was a 56.4% increase in the incidence rate of young adults with diabetes.
Currently, the CDC concentrates its prevention efforts on the National Diabetes Prevention Program. This public and private partnership promotes evidence-based lifestyle change programs to help reduce the risk of type 2 diabetes. The program has also recently expanded to brick-and-mortar pharmacies throughout America.
