Heat-Related CV Deaths to Greatly Impact Black and Elderly Communities

Earlier this week, the National Institutes of Health (NIH) announced that heat-related cardiovascular deaths are expected to increase drastically between 2036 and 2065. The press release cites an NIH-funded study published in Circulation that evaluated the correlation between rising temperatures and cardiovascular deaths from 2008 to 2019, making predictions based on existing trends.

The researchers indexed the number of extreme heat days and the rate of cardiovascular deaths among adults. They developed a model using representative concentration pathways for greenhouse gas emissions to predict the expected increase in extreme heat days. The model had two iterations. One predicted the number of heat days based on an intermediate increase in emissions, which researchers referred to as a “middle-of-the-road” socioeconomic scenario. The other analyzed the number of heat days during a significant increase in emissions, called the “fossil-fueled development” socioeconomic scenario.

Based on the data collected, from 2008 to 2019, there were 1,651 excess heat-related cardiovascular deaths annually.

The projections and models used in the study anticipate 4,320 heat-related cardiovascular deaths yearly between 2036 and 2065 in the middle-of-the-road economic scenario. However, the more extreme scenario is expected to cause 5,491 cardiovascular deaths annually, which is over triple the historical number.

“The health burdens from extreme heat will continue to grow within the next several decades,” said Sameed A. Khatana, MD, MPH, a study author, cardiologist, and assistant professor of medicine at the University of Pennsylvania, Philadelphia, in a press release. “Due to the unequal impact of extreme heat on different populations, this is also a matter of health equity and could exacerbate health disparities that already exist.”

Beyond the overall increase in cardiovascular deaths, the researchers also identified an inequitable impact on specific patient populations as warming temperatures increase. For example, under fossil-fueled development conditions, elderly adults will have mortality rates that are roughly 3.5 times greater than non-elderly adults.

Additionally, fossil-fueled development conditions are expected to have a 4.6 times greater impact on non-Hispanic Black adults than White adults.

The results of this study not only point to overall public health concerns but also increased barriers to health equity for minority and marginalized communities, echoing existing concerns about the impacts of environmental health on these patient populations.

For instance, last year, an article in JAMA Pediatrics noted that Black children are 50% more likely to have asthma than White children, postulating that these disease rates may be linked to environmental exposures.

As climate change and rising temperatures continue to impact nearly every component of healthcare, policy leaders and scientists must collaborate to address these concerns.