The global total fertility rate declined by over 50% from 1950 to 2021

An analysis of global fertility in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2021 was published in the Lancet on March 20, 2024, revealing that global fertility rates are declining, with some locations experiencing increases in fertility while others exhibit drastic declines. The publication gathered data on multiple factors, including total fertility rates, age-specific fertility rates, live births, and future fertility forecasts.

The study used data from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) to asses fertility rates between 1850 and 2022. The researchers looked at female fertility in five-year age groups, focusing on ages 10–54. Using these age groupings, they generated age-specific fertility rates to estimate total fertility rates.

The global total fertility rate, the average number of children per female, declined from 4.84 to 2.23 between 1950 and 2021. The insights in the article note that across all territories and countries evaluated the total fertility rate has declined since 1950. While some countries have maintained replacement-level fertility as of 2021, which is determined to be 2.1 children per mother, 53.9% of locations identified in this study have not.

In addition to overall fertility, the study looked at global annual live births, identifying 2016 as the peak in annual live births with 142 million. However, since 2016, the number of global annual live births has declined, with an estimated 129 million in 2021.

The researchers also included estimates for future fertility, which indicated a decline in total fertility significantly lower than the replacement level. For example, by 2050, they estimated that the total global fertility rate would be 1.83, with only 24.0% of countries having individual fertility rates above replacement level. Beyond that, estimates for 2100 were even lower at 1.59, including only 2.9% of countries achieving replacement fertility rates.

“These changes will have far-reaching economic and societal consequences due to aging populations and declining workforces in higher-income countries, combined with an increasing share of livebirths among the already poorest regions of the world,” concluded the researchers in the publication.