Cardiovascular disease will impact over 61% of the US by 2050

Two studies published today in Circulation, a journal published by the American Heart Association, point to a significant increase in the burden of cardiovascular disease (CVD) across the United States by 2050. One study forecasted the prevalence of the disease, predicting that over 61% of the US population will have CVD by 2050. Another study analyzing the economic burden of the disease estimated that this increased prevalence would contribute to $1.8 trillion in direct and indirect costs. 

“It is crucial to quantify the full burden of cardiovascular disease so we can better inform the policies and community-level and health system interventions needed to change this current path. We recognize that the landscape of cardiovascular health will change over the next three decades because of the coming tsunami of rising healthcare costs, an older population living longer, and increasing numbers of people from under-resourced populations. The findings of these important advisories predict a dire human and economic toll from heart disease and stroke if changes are not made. However, this does not have to be the reality of our future,” noted American Heart Association Chief Executive Officer Nancy Brown in the press announcement.   

The first study, Forecasting the Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050 — Prevalence of Risk Factors and Disease: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association, looked at data from the National Health and Nutrition Examination Survey from 2015 to March 2020 and the Medical Expenditure Panel Survey from 2015 to 2019. Using this data, researchers evaluated trends in CVD and CVD risk factors to develop projections for 2050.  

The researchers concluded that, by 2050, 184 million American adults will be impacted by CVD, including coronary disease, heart failure, stroke, atrial fibrillation, and total cardiovascular disease.  

A closer look at the data reveals trends in certain risk factors. For example, hypertension rates are expected to increase from 51.2% in 2020 to 61.0% in 2050. Obesity rates are also expected to climb from 43.1% to 60.6%.  

The other study, Forecasting the Economic Burden of Cardiovascular Disease and Stroke in the United States Through 2050: A Presidential Advisory From the American Heart Association, looked at the financial toll these rising rates will take on the US. Researchers used national health, economic, and demographic data to predict healthcare costs and the human capital approach to understand the productivity losses from morbidity. 

“It is not surprising that an enormous increase in cardiovascular risk factors and diseases will produce a substantial economic burden — to the tune of a $1.8 trillion price tag for cardiovascular disease projected by 2050,” said volunteer vice-chair of the advisory writing groups Dhruv S. Kazi, MD, MSc, MS, FAHA, in the AHA press announcement. “This is a near tripling of the total direct and indirect costs of cardiovascular disease over the coming three decades and almost doubles the economic impact of CVD as a proportion of the US gross domestic product, increasing from 2.7% in 2020 to 4.6% in 2050.”