US overdose deaths declined for the first time in 5 years

On May 15, 2024, the United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) updated its Provisional Drug Overdose Death Counts page using preliminary federal data from the National Center for Health Statistics, revealing positive information that the national overdose death counts dropped for the first time in five years.

For decades, the US has been battling an ongoing drug crisis fueled by synthetic opioid misuse, most prominently fentanyl. However, preliminary data published by the CDC estimates a decline in drug overdose deaths across the US between December 2022 and December 2023. While changes in overdose deaths varied by state, many states saw a decrease in overdose deaths.

The CDC data showed two kinds of information: reported and predicted data. The organization notes that the reported data are provisional counts for the 12 months, but these counts may not include drug overdose deaths that are pending investigation. To combat this discrepancy, the CDC has adjusted the number of deaths to account for incomplete reporting and provided predicted provisional counts.

According to the data, the number of reported drug overdose deaths across the US declined by 5.1% over the year; however, after accounting for unreported overdoses, the CDC estimates that the decline is roughly 3.1%.

“It is a hopeful trend in some ways,” said Dr. Katherine Keyes, a professor at the Columbia University Mailman School of Public Health whose research focuses on substance use epidemiology, in a statement to CNN. “We know that this drug epidemic is dynamic and changes quite quickly, so any time you see a leveling off or a slight decrease, it is promising. It is certainly not a sign that we need to take the foot off the gas of overdose prevention.”

More specifically, the predicted number of overdose deaths in December 2022 was 111,029 (with a reported number of 109,413 overdose deaths), but in December 2023, the predicted number of deaths dropped to 107,543 (with 103,793 reported overdose deaths).

“This progress over the last 12 months should make us want to reinvigorate our efforts knowing that our strategies are making a difference,” CDC Chief Medical Officer Dr. Deb Houry said in a statement according to CNN. “There are still families and friends losing their loved ones to drug overdoses at staggering numbers.”

The CDC also evaluated data by state, which showed that while the national overdose death rates declined, the overdose crisis in each state varied. The top five states with the most significant decline in overdose deaths include Nebraska (-24.7%), Indiana (-17.9%), Kansas (-16.0%), Maine (-15.9%), and North Carolina (-14.3%). On the other hand, many states saw an increase in the number of overdose deaths. Most notably, Alaska saw a 44.1% increase in overdose deaths, followed by Oregon (30.0%), Nevada (28.9%), Washington (27.6%), and the District of Columbia (9.4%).