Cellular Network Data Detects Potential COVID-19 Hotspots

A team from Colorado State University are pinpointing potential hotspots for COVID-19 transmission with cellular wireless network data, which could help regions manage risk.

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Because the virus is spread by individuals in close proximity, researchers developed a method that helps them identify the most crowded areas, such as city centers. In these places, asymptomatic carriers have a higher probability of coming into close contact with large numbers of healthy people.

The group aims to understand how mobile device users move and gather over time in an area by using what are known as handover and cell (re)selection protocols. These are the cellular network technologies that allow us to move about freely with our mobile devices without losing service.

Using the data collected through these networks, the researchers measure handover and cell (re)selection activity, called HO/CS rates. The higher the density and mobility, the higher the risk of spreading infectious diseases.

"Our findings could help risk managers with planning and mitigation," said Edwin Chong, professor of electrical and computer engineering. "It might prompt them to cordon off a busy plaza, for example, or implement stricter social distancing measures to slow the spread of the virus."

Researchers could also use this method to estimate the percentage of people staying home to determine whether communities are following recommended public health policies.

The team is taking privacy and security concerns into consideration during this project. Unlike contact tracing applications that are often difficult to deploy and require widespread adoption, this approach protects the privacy and anonymity of individuals without needing active participation from device users.

"Our method overcomes the downsides of contact tracing apps," Chong said. "All we have to do is perform the measurements using anonymous data that is already being collected for other reasons. We are not tracking individuals."

Contact tracing has emerged as a potential way to track and control the spread of the virus in different parts of the country, but privacy and security issues have been top of mind for leaders across the care continuum.

In May, Alabama, North Dakota, and South Carolina were the first states to publicly comment about using contact tracing technology developed by Apple and Google. The tool uses a Bluetooth-based system that stores data on people’s phones rather than a central database.

“Exposure Notification has the specific goal of rapid notification, which is especially important to slowing the spread of the disease with a virus that can be spread asymptomatically,” Google and Apple said in a joint statement.

“What we’ve built is not an app—rather public health agencies will incorporate the API into their own apps that people install. Our technology is designed to make these apps work better. Each user gets to decide whether or not to opt-in to Exposure Notifications; the system does not collect or use location from the device; and if a person is diagnosed with COVID-19, it is up to them whether or not to report that in the public health app.”

The Colorado State research team expects that their method could be applied to diseases and outbreaks beyond COVID-19.

"It can help with other epidemiological risks, such as the flu. Regardless of the disease, it's very important to have tools that help risk managers focus and prioritize to protect our citizens," Chong said.