Few Hospitals Learned Population Health Lessons from COVID-19

Although most hospitals across the country suffered due to the impact of COVID-19, in Numerof’s sixth annual State of Population Health Survey report, research indicates that few hospitals took away any lessons regarding mitigating business risk in fee-for-service.

The State of Population Health Survey report provides a comprehensive look at the progress of United States healthcare delivery organizations in incorporating population health strategies into routine operations. The most recent report was conducted virtually between September 202 and February 2021.

Around 300 healthcare executives responded to the survey. Once again, a vast majority (99%) reported they expected their organization to have some revenue in models with upside gain and/or downside risk in two years, even though their expectations have regularly fallen short in past years.

“Progress toward improving population health is still moving at a frustratingly glacial pace,” the firm’s president Rita Numerof, PhD said in a press release.

“Like many, we hoped that this year’s survey would show some progress toward value-based practice integration, yet we found many executives still failing to see the shortcomings of the fee-for-service status quo. This unwillingness to see and address these now obvious, fundamental issues is exactly why government bailouts cannot continue – especially without any requirement to prevent this from happening again in the next pandemic!”

When asked whether they thought the pandemic would accelerate at-risk contracting, survey participants were evenly split among the three answers: “agree” at 39 percent, “neutral” at 30 percent, and “disagree” at 31 percent.

Similarly, when asked whether capitated models would be more attractive due to COVID-19, 36 percent agreed, 31 percent were neutral, and 33 percent disagreed.

However, almost all respondents (93 percent) rated population health as being “moderately” to “critically” important for their organizations’ future success, with the primary reason being better control of clinical costs, quality, and outcomes.

“It’s long been known that the most expensive piece of equipment in the hospital is the physician’s pen,” said Michael Abrams, managing partner of Numerof & Associates.

“Yet, in our sixth annual survey, 62% of respondents rated their organization’s ability to manage variation in cost at the physician level as “average” or “worse than average.” If executives have so little insight into the cost differences between physicians, how can they possibly expect to control them?”

While survey participants indicated they were more confident in their organizations’ ability to manage variation in clinical quality at the physician level, more than two-thirds of respondents rated their organization as “better than average.”

“Once again, Rita Numerof and her team have taken the pulse of our industry, and while the pulse is strong, there are some worrisome skipped beats,” said David B. Nash, MD, MBA, Founding Dean Emeritus of the Jefferson College of Population Health, with whom Numerof conducted its sixth annual study.

“Quality and outcome measures are more important than ever, but the pandemic has overshadowed decades of progress in this arena. One thing is clear, however: We need great leaders, and this report helps to clarify the role of our emerging population health leaders better than any other piece of research that is extant in the marketplace.”